“It’s not how but where you win” Students at Berlin Cosmopolitan School dive into the US electoral system with Bruce Stokes

With the 2024 US presidential election fast approaching, students taking Global Politics, our student newspaper and the Model United Nations Club gained valuable insights into the complexities of American democracy during a captivating presentation by Bruce Stokes from the German Marshall Fund. The topic? A comprehensive analysis of the US electoral system and the current state of American public opinion.

An unfair system?
Stokes wasted no time in explaining the key aspects of the US electoral system, a system he openly described as “unfair.” He detailed how the Electoral College functions, pointing out a fundamental feature that often surprises international audiences: “You don’t win the election in the US by how many votes you get from the voters. What really matters is where you get the votes.” This, he explained, is why candidates focus their attention on a handful of swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, where electoral outcomes are most contested.

The divisions in American society
The presentation also touched on the growing divisions within the United States. Stokes highlighted how political preferences differ significantly between urban and rural areas, and by age, race, and education. “Older people vote more than younger people,” he noted, pointing out that while the youth turnout in 2020 was the highest since 1972, it was still 24 points lower than the turnout of those aged 65 and older. “If young people don’t vote, they are missing their chance to fix the world,” he urged.

Money and politics: A corrupt system?
A notable portion of the talk focused on the role of money in American elections. Stokes emphasized that spending in the upcoming 2024 election is expected to exceed $3.2 billion, not including the costs of travel and campaign infrastructure. He remarked, “We have a system that opens the door to corruption. Money has become more important than ever. We’ve tried to fix it since Nixon, but we haven’t succeeded yet.”

A divided government?
Looking ahead to the potential outcomes of the 2024 election, Stokes projected that Americans are likely to end up with a divided government. He predicted that the Democrats would regain control of the House of Representatives while the Republicans would take back the Senate, regardless of who wins the White House.

Student engagement and key takeaways
The students were highly engaged, asking thought-provoking questions and delving into the various complexities of the US political landscape. Topics ranged from the impact of disinformation on social media, exacerbated by the rise of AI, to the sobering possibility of post-election violence if the results are contested. One of the most striking insights Stokes shared was the growing pessimism in the US about election outcomes, with only one-third of Americans expecting a clear result on election night.

In his closing remarks, Stokes left students with much to reflect on, including the prospect of an Electoral College tie—a rare but possible scenario that could send the decision to the House of Representatives, as it last did in 1824.

This presentation offered BCS students not only a detailed look at how the US electoral system functions but also a glimpse into the societal challenges that shape American democracy today.

Special Thanks

We would like to extend a heartfelt thank you to the Aspen Institute for organizing this enlightening session and to Bruce Stokes for taking the time to share his expertise with our students. The insights gained from this talk will no doubt contribute to their understanding of international politics and democratic processes.